Economic history / Recent economic history

Recent economic history

Pakistan's economic outlook has brightened in recent years in conjunction with rapid economic growth and a dramatic improvement in its foreign exchange position as a result of its current account surplus and a consequent rapid growth in hard currency reserves.

The state-owned firm in early 2002 signed agreements with five international telecom companies for terminating additional international incoming traffic to capture the grey market by using voice over Internet protocol (VoIP) technology from the US and Europe into Pakistan.

The conditionality of the IMF program, which was suspended in July 1999 and resumed later during the administration of Pervez Musharraf. Having improved its finances, Pakistan's government announced in 2004 that it would no longer require IMF assistance, and the assistance program ended in that year.

Average urban wages in 2007 hover around $4-5 per day.

With accelerating economic growth, economists are now emphasizing a different range of problems. According to Ahmed Rashid, the World Bank Country Director for Pakistan,

Now Pakistan faces higher quality problems—the problems of success. Demand has risen faster than supply. This has shown up in high inflation and a zooming trade deficit. The “tight fiscal, easy money” formula to get growth going needs to be “tight fiscal, tight money and credit” to sustain rapid growth. Idle domestic production capacity allowed the rising demand to be accommodated by rising capacity utilization in cement, steel, fertilizer, textiles, automobiles and motorcycles. Now that capacity is more than fully utilized, resulting in backlogs and imports.

Musharraf's economic agenda continues to include measures to widen the tax net, privatize public sector assets, and improve its balance of trade. Pakistan has made governance reforms, privatization, and deregulation the cornerstones of its economic revival

Although it received a positive endorsement from international financial institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank, as well as improved credit ratings from Standard & Poor's and Moody's.

Pakistan's current account surplus had put upward pressure on the Pakistani rupee, which rose from 64 rupees per dollar to 57 rupees per dollar. The State Bank of Pakistan (the central bank) stabilized the rise by lowering interest rates and buying dollars. After short-term Pakistani T-bond rates fell below 2%, with government borrowing having declined, banks greatly expanded their lending to businesses and consumers. Construction activity, sales of durable goods such as trucks and automobiles, and housing purchases have all jumped to record levels. Private sector credit expanded by 28.5% in 2003, and continues to expand despite monetary restraints — the SBP imposed interest-rate increases to moderate money supply and prevent "overheating".

Pakistan's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 1997 was US$ 75.3 billion. Five years later in 2002, the country's nominal GDP came down to US$ 71.5 billion. During this five-year period, the real GDP grew by a meagre 3.0 per cent on an average. Pakistan government's debt was 82 per cent of its GDP in 2002. Over one-third of the government's revenue was being used up in making interest payments on the national debt. The near stagnant economy suddenly started showing miraculous growth in 2002 after lifting of economic sanctions imposed after Pakistan's 1998 nuclear tests. The economy grew at 5.1 per cent in 2003, 6.4 per cent in 2004 and 7.0 per cent in 2005. The US$ 72 billions economy of 2002 has swelled into a US$ 108 billion economy in 2005. During 1997-2002 Pakistan's average export growth has been 1.2 per cent per year and increased to 13 per cent per year during 2003-05. Pakistan's debt as a percentage of the GDP came down to 59 per cent in 2005 from 82 per cent in 2002. Pakistan government's interest payment as a percentage of revenue collection came down to 23 per cent in 2005 as compared to 35 per cent in 2002. The foreign economic aid since 9/11, especially from the USA, has contributed most to the country's economic progress.

According to the Asian Development Bank, the first half of FY2006 was marked by a slowdown in both industry and agriculture in Pakistan. Output of cotton declined by an estimated 10.9 per cent from an all-time high of 14.6 million bales harvested in FY2005. Production of sugarcane, another major summer crop, is also estimated lower than last year. The growth of large-scale manufacturing slowed to 8.7 per cent in the first quarter of FY2006 from 24.9 per cent in the same period of last year, primarily due to capacity constraints and the high-base effect. Among individual industries in the first quarter, growth of textiles tumbled to 7.2 per cent from 29.6 per cent year on year. Automobile assembly and electronics, which have shown the fastest expansion among sub-sectors in the last 2-3 years, also decelerated. Inflation accelerated in FY2005 after five years of price stability. Annual inflation, based on the consumer price index, more than doubled to 9.3 per cent from 4.6 per cent, mainly because of higher food prices and rising house rents. Due to a sharp increase in domestic oil prices, transport costs also jumped. Core -- nonfood, non-oil -- inflation also doubled, from 3.7 per cent to 7.4 per cent.

Pakistan is a middle income country. Its economy is among the fastest-growing in the world as its economy has reached the size of $140 billion from a mere $70 billion a few years earlier, Federal Advisor on Finance Dr Salman Shah informed the media. Per capita income now stands at $808.

The Economic Survey of Pakistan for 2006-2007 has concluded the country's economy recorded 7.3 percent growth, . Former Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz said that Pakistan's economy should continue to grow every year at about seven percent and he also assured that many measures will be taken to give the economy a further boost. He promised privitization of companies and he also invested in the economy by allowing free education for under 16's and also came up with a scheme to pay girls two hundred rupees a month as an incentive to attend school. Also in the next five years many foreign universities from different European nations have announced they will be opening campuses in Pakistan.